The Economy Is/Isn’t Healthy: NYMag Edition

Though New York Magazine’s article is hypothetical, it’s a good overview of all the things that can and may go wrong to send the U.S. economy into recession. The systematic risk of these developing events occurring together and worsening one-another (George Soros calls this systematic risk reflexivity, I call it a positive-feedback loop to hell) could make for a really devastating recession.

One of my most on-the-money macroeconomic models is forecasting good times to continue until 2011 or 2012 (at which point the demographics of peak-household spending change for the worse), but my model only has one input and doesn’t take into account the risks outlined in this excellent dystopian article.

It’s a good read.

Read at New York Magazine.

P.S.

NYMag.com is one of my favorite voices in journalism. Their pieces are youthful, intelligent, and, in a world so obsessed with being quick and concise, shockingly complete. Perhaps remarkable is the best word.

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