Disturbing Trends In Global Population Growth

CNN reports that the world’s population is forecast to hit 7 billion in 2011, with the vast majority of its growth coming in developing and, in many cases, the poorest nations:

97 percent of global growth over the next 40 years will happen in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Population Reference Bureau’s 2009 World Population Data Sheet. “The great bulk of today’s 1.2 billion youth — nearly 90 percent — are in developing countries,” said Carl Haub, a co-author of the report. Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia.

High fertility rates and a young population base in the developing world will fuel most of the growth, especially in Africa, where women often give birth to six or seven children over a lifetime, the report says. The number is about two in the United States and 1.5 in Canada.

A stark contrast can be drawn between Uganda and Canada, which currently have about 34 million and 31 million residents, respectively. By 2050, Canada’s population is projected to be 42 million, while Uganda’s is expected to soar to 96 million, more than tripling.

“Even with declining fertility rates in many countries, world population is still growing at a rapid rate,” said Bill Butz, president of the bureau. “The increase from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion to 6 billion. Both events are unprecedented in world history.”

Population growth is the biggest problem that our generation will face. Adding bodies and at the same time increasing resource consumption per human is a recipe for disaster.

The silver lining is that, as societies develop, their birthrates go down. Developed areas like Hong Kong and Macau sport responsible fertility rates, with the number of children born per woman at less than 1. South Korea, Singapore, and Japan hover around 1.25 children per woman, and most of Europe is in the 1.25-1.6 range. Canada’s is 1.5, and the United States’ is 2.05–both under the “replacement rate” of 2.2, which would mean zero population growth.

The problem is the poorest nations, including Niger, Guinea-Bissau, and Afghanistan, where women have seven children, on average. How they can support these children, let alone educate them and provide them with quality medical care, is beyond me.

World population projected to reach 7 billion in 2011 – CNN