China Reconsidering One-Child Policy

China’s one-child policy is a triumph of responsible planning.

China says its policies have prevented several hundred million births and boosted prosperity, but experts have warned of a looming social time-bomb from an aging population and widening gender disparity stemming from a traditional preference for boys. With the world’s biggest population straining scarce land, water and energy resources, China has enforced rules to restrict family size since the 1970s. Rules vary but usually limit families to one child, or two in the countryside.”

The problem in China is the same one Italy and Japan are facing: with the birthrate hovering lower than the replacement rate of 2.1 children per female, a country’s population ages while the younger generation comparatively shrinks in size. This poses problems of logistics, economics, and taxation, as a smaller workforce could be stretched too thin to support an larger society.

China’s birthrate is 1.8 children per female.

“We want incrementally to have this change,” Vice Minister of the National Population and Family Planning Commission Zhao Baige told reporters in Beijing.“ Still, the government has previously expressed concern that too many people are flouting the rules. State media said in December that China’s population would grow to 1.5 billion people by 2033, with birth rates set to soar over the next five years. Officials have also cautioned that population controls are being unraveled by the increased mobility of China’s 150 million-odd migrant workers, who travel from poor rural areas to work in more affluent eastern cities. China has vowed to slap heavier fines on wealthy citizens who flout family planning laws in response to the emergence of an upper class willing to pay standard fines to have more children.

China already fines those with the means for having more children, but what is missing is a national target for births linked to a variable fine to keep births in line with their desired projection. This would allow anyone to have as many children as they want (as long as they are willing to pay for the extra strain their children exert on society’s resources), while ensuring that population growth doesn’t get out of control. Also, there are some external effects that would be very positive. For instance, allowing only the wealthy to have more than one or two children ensures that those children will have access to better education and more opportunities. As we’ve seen in North America, where everyone is allowed to reproduce without fine or consequence, we see the opposite effect: that of more reproduction among the poorer classes, who likely have less time and resources to ensure their children have every opportunity in education and personal development.

My hope is that China makes only subtle changes to its already very successful program, for the benefit of both the Chinese people and the world.

China may scrap one-child policy, official says