Seattle
Seasons
My driver, shaking his head at the rainy weather here:
“There should only be two seasons. Summer. And winter.”
Changing Tack
Last week, I was prompted to think about the direction I’m taking professionally. A fantastic opportunity presented itself, in the form of a startup that’s poised to change the way business is done in an industry literally begging for competition. Confronted with this opportunity, managing money just doesn’t seem as alluring to me anymore.
I know that investment management is my calling. I’ll come back to it in the coming years, but for now, I seek a new challenge.
Here’s to changing tack when the winds change.
Costumes
Ran into some interesting get-ups on Friday evening, like cookie monster here, behind me:
You know the economy is getting bad when…
…people are dousing themselves in gasoline and setting themselves alight:
Dear UW Students,
Many of you may have witnessed or heard about the tragic incident on Red Square today in which a former UW employee set fire to himself. Sadly he died later at Harborview Medical Center, our condolences go out to his family. We all recognize that it was a terrifying and painful thing for people to see. After witnessing a traumatic event you may experience a number of reactions; shock, fear, sadness, or heightened emotions. The University has a number of offices available to help you get through this time. To help you cope with your reactions we encourage you to remember the following:
DO
· Seek professional support if you feel like you need help processing what happened.
Don’t
· Numb your pain with depressive chemicals such as alcohol or other drugs.
If your distress is disrupting your life and your ability to carry on basic functions, seek help.
Sincerely yours,
Eric S. Godfrey
Vice Provost for Student Life
Diseases That Will Kill
If you weren’t already alarmed by our impending economic doom, here’s some chipper news on the health front!:
-Tuberculosis infections in Washington State are at a 30-year high.
-Public Health has no funding past 2009 (Good thinking, guys!), jeopardizing local prevention efforts by cutting outbreak response staff, killing off the satellite TB clinic that serves the homeless (TB-infested pirates, they are), and weakening the State’s ability to ensure that active TB patients complete treatment.
-Outbreaks will become more likely, and more difficult to respond to/control.
-Multi-drug resistant TB costs $250,000/person to cure.
-Run for the hills!
-81% of active TB patients are low-income, 80% are ethnic minorities, and 76% were foreign-born. Blacks (46 per 100,000), Asians (30 per 100,000) and Hispanics (17 per 100,000) continue to have disproportionately higher TB rates than whites (2.3 per 100,000).
-Super! If you’re white like me, you don’t have anything to worry about!*
*Save for the possibility our underfunded Public Health system misses a multi-drug resistant TB outbreak and we all consequently die.
30-year tuberculosis high in King County reflects ongoing health threat
Microsoft/OpenID
(Since I disparaged Microsoft in a note earlier, this helps to balance it out)
Microsoft has embraced OpenID. If you didn’t know, you can log into cameronnewland.com with an OpenID identity as well.
Does Joe Biden Want To Invade Iran?
Joe Biden has said that the world will test newly-elected President Barack Obama with an international crisis within six months of taking office. “Mark my words,” Biden told donors at a Seattle fund-raiser Sunday night. “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. [...] Watch. We’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. [...] And he’s going to need help . . . to stand with him. Because it’s not going to be apparent initially; it’s not going to be apparent that we’re right.”
Biden is quite familiar with international politics, and to be certain enough as to make a comment on the record about this means that he knows precisely what is going to happen.
Does Joe Biden intend to invade Iran?
It makes sense. It fits in with his comments at the Seattle fundraiser. Also, when Israel asked Bush if they could pre-emptively attack Iran, the United States denied their request as well as any assistance for such a mission. Both Israel and the United States have said that they will not allow Tehran to go nuclear. Because the US denied Israel the opportunity, does that mean the United States is going to do it themselves?
What do you think?
JOE D’OH PUTS O IN ‘CRISIS’ MODE - NYPost
UPDATE: Biden now says that he was only referring to the fact that every president is challenged, and the Barack Obama is better prepared to face it than John McCain. He denies having any specific intelligence on a specific national security threat.
A Thug Downtown
Ghetto thug, panhandling: “Ay man….you got some money to support uhhhhhhhh….marijuana research?”
Dub Dollars
University of Washington’s President, Mark Emmert, took the extreme step of emailing all current students and staff to address the global economic crisis and its potential effects on the University’s standing.
Some new information came to light that I was unaware of:
The University experienced firsthand some of the effects of the Wall Street investment jitters when we decided a few weeks ago to initiate legal action against Northern Trust of Chicago, the bank that held in custody a significant portion of our investment portfolio. Thanks to some expert work on the part of the University’s Treasury Office and our investment team, we were able to avoid significant loss and are back on track in managing and protecting the University’s assets.
He then addresses the State of Washington’s projected deficit, and how it will affect the UW with funding cuts. I hardly believe the UW will be in dire straights, what with their multi-billion dollar endowment backing them up.
Dave Reichert = My Hero
Dave Reichert, a conservative congressman I can agree with!:
Reichert addressed the topic of abortion by promising a hands-off approach in matters dealing with Roe v. Wade. “It’s a non-issue for us in Congress,” he said. “We haven’t taken a vote on pro-choice/pro-life, and we won’t take a vote. It is an issue that has been decided by the United States Supreme Court.”
Friday Evening
Mini Burgers (10/10, $3.00) with BBQ sauce and sautéed onions, Satellite Lounge, 1118 E Pike Street
(click to enlarge)
Ceiling detail at Del Rey, 2332 1st Avenue
(click to enlarge)
Meydenbauer Nightshot
The Meydenbauer Yacht club right after sunset, with some boats moored in the marina at right.
Ladybug
I went to The Root Connection (a farm in Woodinville, WA) with my sister and her fiance and captured this little insect amongst the wildflowers:
Rainy Day(s)
After leaving Los Angeles on Sunday, I think it’s rained every single day here (in Seattle).
Sad trombone.
Forbes 400: Seattle Well Represented
Bill Gates anchors the top spot on the list of the 400 richest Americans for another year, coming in at $57 billion.
Mercer Island resident Paul Allen comes in at #12 with $16 billion, Hunts Point Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer is #15 with $15 billion, and University of Washington graduate Donald Bren rang in at #20, with a $12 billion fortune.
Check it out:
Ridiculous.
This is ridiculous:
Supreme Court rule smoking ban applies to private clubs
A deeply divided Washington State Supreme Court has ruled that smoking is illegal even in private clubs.
Government should keep their hands out of our personal lives. Why did the Supreme Court decide they had the right to rule on this in the first place? It’s the legislature’s job to make laws, not the courts. If the legislators wanted to specifically ban smoking in private clubs, they would’ve done so.
Electric Car Infrastructure
So far, Israel and Denmark are the only two major countries that have announced their participation in Project Better Place, an ambitious project involving electric car recharging stations and infrastructure paired with Nissan electric cars.
The cost-per-mile of electric cars is projected to be around 2 cents per mile, much lower than traditional internal-combustion transportation. The future of transport is 100% electric, and Denmark and Israel know it, and are planning accordingly.
Another nation that is preparing for the changeover is Japan. They’re building a national charging infrastructure using Japan Electric Power’s tech that allows a 40km charge in just 5 minutes, and a 60km charge in just 10.
In the United States, there is talk from Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama regarding more public spending on alternative energy generation, but there is little talk regarding electric cars. Most of the changeover talk in the US is coming from venture-backed startups like V2Green, who have an economic incentive to drum-up support. There hasn’t been enough positive talk coming from politicians.
In Seattle, Puget Sound Energy has launched a two-year pilot program to better understand how plug-in vehicles will interact with the electricity grid. They don’t foresee any problems, especially if electric cars are programmed to charge during off-peak hours, when prices are low and excess electric capacity is available.
The future is clear. Will we be ready?
General Motors recharges on future of electric car - Seattle Times
Japan building national charging station network for future EVs - Motor Authority
Boeing vs. The Union
Greedy, despicable human beings.
I’m not a fan of unions. I’m glad they were formed, because back then, workers were not being treated well enough. Establishing family-friendly 40-hour workweeks and ensuring worker safety were important steps forward. However, when unions only aim is to suck their employer dry, that’s really sickening.
Unions hold the cards, because they can put the company out of business with a prolonged strike. Unions can be greedy, and their leaders sometimes think only of what they can get out of management, rather than what is fair or what is needed.
Consider Boeing. They’re in the middle of a global buying frenzy for new planes. They have billions in orders, and an 8-year backlog. Boeing has delayed plane deliveries, and a potential work-stoppage now could increase penalties for delayed planes.
Here comes the union.
They came with their demands, including a list of specific ones that would trigger a strike. Of course, they were asking for the world, and Boeing couldn’t deliver on all of the workers’ wishlist items.
Now, the IAM (the union of Machinists) has recommended that its members vote down Boeing’s offer. The vote is to take place Wednesday.
There is already some extreme opposition to the IAM showing up online. Over at the Seattle times, commenter Bret from Spokane says:
The union has gotten way out of hand. Fair labor was the goal of unions when they were necessary. This union is bent on bringing the company to its knees. The union’s position and tactics disgust me and seem a perversion of the original purpose of the union system.
Bob from Seattle gives an additional view:
Honestly, they should all be fired. Voting to strike in this economic climate isn’t very bright. They should be happy to have jobs at all.
Scott from Shoreline says:
Given the current state of the economy, the machinists shouldn’t expect support from the public if they choose to strike. Most people I know, including non-machinist Boeing employees, were ENVIOUS of the final offer the company made. There’s bargaining for a better contract, and then there’s just plain stupidity. Wake up, IAM, you’re burning the coffee.
Another commenter referenced Ronald Reagan’s victory over the Air-Traffic Controllers union in 1981, in which air-traffic controllers called in sick to simulate a strike in order to extract more pay and benefits. Ronald Reagan famously had the Transportation Secretary train replacements, and all the striking controllers were fired and replaced.
Perhaps Boeing should’ve thought about training a non-union manufacturing force outside of Washington State prior to this impasse.
I’m guessing that Boeing’s offer will be approved by the union members next week, signifying a huge defeat for the union leadership.
What do you think of the IAM’s recommendation to strike Boeing? - Seattle Times
Obama’s $3 Bill
Snohomish County Republican Party volunteers sold fake $3 bills depicting Sen. Barack Obama in traditional Arab headgear, with a camel. The bills identify Obama as “Da Man” and show signatures for “Teddy Kennedy, Chief Socialism Advisor.”
Classy.
The GOP isn’t to blame for this, because some volunteer/supporter brought a stack of the bills without the approval of the County head. Upon discovering volunteers were selling the bills, they were promptly removed.
$3 Bill Mocking Obama Sold At GOP’s State Fair Booth - KIROTV.com
Piscina
I’ve really got a connection to pools. Perhaps it’s in my genes.
“…in 2500 B.C., Egyptians knew swimming as an organized activity. Depictions of swimming from India are equally old. Ancient Romans constructed artificial pools for athletic training, nautical games and military exercises. Swimming was also part of boys’ education.
Extravagant swimming pools with live fish entertained Roman emperors, and gave the pool its Latin name piscina. Ancient Greeks [...] practice[d] the sport and built swimming pools as part of their baths. The first heated swimming pool was built in Rome in the first century BC.
England’s first indoor swimming pool, the 40-foot-long Bagnio [...] in London, opened in 1742. King Ludwig II of Bavaria built the first-ever wave pool with electrically heated water and light in his Linderhof castle in 1879.
In the U.S., the earliest public swimming pools were small indoor pools built with the intention of encouraging better hygiene among the poor. By the 1920s, the American public pool had become a large public place of amusement and recreation for thousands at a time. Home swimming pools became popular in the U.S. after WWII and Hollywood films made the backyard pool an important status symbol.”
The last building I lived in downtown had a nice pool and spa, and now that I’m without one in Bellevue, I walk a half mile each way just to luxuriate in warm water. I just can’t be without this modern necessity that I’ve grown to love so much.
My favorite condo development in Seattle, Cristalla, is on the site of the former Crystal Pool, which was built in 1915:
The new building incorporates two full walls from the old pool, in addition to sporting a dome at the northeast corner which echoes the old dome of the Crystal Pool (visible at the bottom of the structure, in the middle):
Where are the world’s coolest hotel pools? - The Cool Hunter
Bellevue Waterfront
Could you imagine downtown Bellevue with a proper waterfront, complete with restaurants and a boardwalk?
Here’s a glimpse:
(click to enlarge)
AltaRock
This is sick.
You never thought crack rocks could be so profitable, or so positive for society (technically, using water to crack really hot rocks, underground).
Google, Paul Allen, others sink $26 million in geothermal startup
The Clover
Must read for Starbucks fans/customers:
The Coffee Fix: Can the $11,000 Clover Machine Save Starbucks? by Matther Honan, Wired Magazine
First Space Needle Mockups
VintageSeattle.org just threw up some of the first Space Needle mockups, made before the World Fair in 1962:
Check it out.
WaMu: Vultures Are Circling
Outside of Washington Mutual headquarters this morning, things didn’t look so rosy. The local CBS affiliate sent a news crew to report on WaMu’s potential insolvency and the big hit the stock took yesterday.
If the media keeps blowing on the flames by reporting on potential bank failures, they might just come up with a self-fulfilling prophecy.
WaMu Rumors
Shares of Washington Mutual slid 35% during the trading session today, on fears of the bank failing after IndyMac Bank was taken over by the FDIC over the weekend.
The bank’s position is solid, with over $40 billion in liquidity and $150 billion in retail deposits, according to a Business Wire brief sent out at the end of trading.
Unfortunately, people aren’t very trusting of bank CEOs right now, what with Bear Stearns’ outright denial that it was troubled up until the day it was bought for pennies on the dollar by JPMorgan.
My mother rang me just now and told me that she’d just returned from Washington Mutual, where she’d withdrawn all of her money after hearing from her boss’ lawyer that WaMu was going down.
Now, there is no reason to foolishly panic. The only people who need to do anything with their bank accounts are those who have more than $100,000 deposited at any single bank. Those people ought to withdraw money and put it into similar accounts at other banks, so as to ensure that all their deposits are FDIC-protected.
Washington Mutual may not be the best-managed bank in the world, but it’s an important employer in my state, and I’d like it to stay solvent. Tell your friends the truth, and correct them when they spread inaccurate rumors.
Inaccurate rumors kill banks, and in the end, it may be someone dear to you — a bank employee — who gets fired because of it.
Bumbershoot Lineup/Tix
You should grab your tickets to Bumbershoot now (for a limited time only, they’re $25/day (instead of $40/day) using this link).
The lineup is here.
I’m excited to see the following:
Estelle (she of the Kanye track “American Boy”
Grynch
Brother Ali
Kid Sister
Stone Temple Pilots
T.I.
Del tha Funkee Homosapien
Flobots
The Offspring
Maybe I’ll see you there?!
WaMu’s Precipitous Fall
I thought financial stocks were cheap in February/March, but some have sold off quite a bit more since.
Patrick Kavanagh just told me to check Washington Mutual’s share price out, and OUCH, has it been hurt!
WaMu is down more than 88% in the last 12 months, which means that if you were to buy shares now for $4.80, and WaMu was to recover to its 52-week-high (around $43), you’d be rewarded with a ~900% return.
To accomplish this, WaMu would have to avoid bankruptcy, not get bought-out on the cheap by a competitor, cut costs, and improve the quality of its loan portfolio (easier said than done).
After this sobering realization, this hypothetical 900% gain seems extremely unlikely.
Seattle Photoroll
Sometimes, living in a place makes one oblivious to the beauty that surrounds them — I tried to forget about that and take some shots of a beautiful Seattle day this last week:
Zango Chokes
I’m a world away from Seattle, but reading this jewel of a news story from the Seattle P-I really made me perk up this evening:
Massive layoffs at pop-up advertiser Zango
Zango, formerly 180solutions, has received criticism over the years for installing its ad-serving software without computer users’ knowledge and making the uninstall process difficult to navigate. In 2006, the company settled a dispute with the Federal Trade Commission and agreed to pay a $3 million fine.
Since that time the company has made a series of acquisitions to broaden its focus, including New York-based HotBar…
I’ve hated this firm from day one, and pray for its demise in the coming months.
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