Economics
You know the economy is getting bad when…
“…gentlemen [...] are taking a more frugal approach to their wanton spending, opting for oysters on the half-shell direct from the docks, filling their own bathtubs with bootlegged gin, and heading to the market square for mutton sandwiches on the benches as opposed to the white linen dining to which [they are] accustomed.”
Via The Foggy Monocle.
Adam Smith on Taxing the Rich
“The necessaries of life [are] the great expense of the poor. . . . The luxuries and vanities of life [are] the principal expense of the rich, and a magnificent house embellishes and sets off to the best advantage all the other luxuries and vanities which they possess. . . . It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.”
Via The Big Picture.
Furniture Repo
You know the economy is getting bad when…
Konstantin (09:30AM): Anyways, at 5:30 I had to go repo a bunch of Italian furniture from a Russian oligarch’s son, with an Israeli commando for backup. I was hysterical! Three jews in a room negotiating…
Bar Stool Economics
Thanks, Jason.
Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100. If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:
The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
The fifth would pay $1.
The sixth would pay $3.
The seventh would pay $7.
The eighth would pay $12.
The ninth would pay $18.
The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.
So, that’s what they decided to do. The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.
“Since you are all such good customers”, he said, “I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20″. Drinks for the ten now cost just $80.
The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free. But what about the other six men - the paying customers? How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his “fair share?”
They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody’s share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer. So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man’s bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.
And so:
The fifth man, like the first four, now paid nothing (100% savings).
The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings).
The seventh now pay $5 instead of $7 (28%savings).
The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings).
The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings).
The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).
Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.
“I only got a dollar out of the $20,” declared the sixth man. He pointed to the tenth man, “but he got $10!”
“Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved a dollar, too. It’s unfair that he got ten times more than I!”
“That’s true!!” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!”
“Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison. “We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!”
The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.
The next night the tenth man didn’t show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important. They didn’t have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!
And that, boys and girls, journalists and college professors, is how our tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier.
David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics, University of Georgia
This is of course a light hearted way to poke fun at “the system”, but still yet an interesting look at the North American tax system. It also observes how we can sometimes get caught up in our own worlds such that we lose sight of the forest through the trees.
Is Nouriel Roubini George Soros’ replacement?
Nouriel Roubini predicted, almost down to the detail, our current financial catastrophe:
While the economic sun was shining, most other economists scoffed at Roubini and his predictions of imminent disaster. They dismissed his warnings that the sub-prime mortgage disaster would trigger a financial meltdown. They could not quite believe his view that the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse, and that the investment banks would be crushed as the world headed for a long recession.
Yet all these predictions and more came true. Few are laughing now.
In essence, he is really just copy-catting George Soros.
George Soros was one of the first to bring the concept of reflexivity to the realm of economics and finance. He posited that if one predicts a possible outcome, and then acts so as to make that outcome more likely, their action can cause a snowballing mass of self-reinforcing movement which forces the predicted outcome to occur.
If you predict something, make enough noise about it, and act to make it more possible, then you will have created a self-fulfilling prophecy.
George Soros was the master of executing this in practice.
Soros would find a situation that was abnormal (a propped-up exchange rate between the British pound and the German mark), position himself to profit (selling short billions of dollars worth of the British pound) which in itself changed the market-determined exchange rate, increasing the likelihood that his predicted outcome (the British pound immediately devalued, Bank of England ends futile propping-up of exchange rate) might actually occur (it did, and Soros made $1 billion in a single day when the pound was devalued).
Soros, however, took a break from being an active market practitioner, and spent more time lecturing and writing (good) books.
Messr. Roubini has taken the torch — he’s the new gold standard in creating, and profiting from, reflexive market gyrations.
Oil Prices and Environmentalism
Environmentalists should be seriously concerned by the recent precipitous fall in oil prices (from $140+ down to $62 a barrel).
Now, that wind energy farm, that solar installation, and that heat-recovery device don’t make anywhere near the kind of competition-relevant financial sense that they did 6 months ago.
This recession is disastrous for Al Gore’s green-tech revolution.
Short Art/Auctioneers
It might be a great time to short Sotheby’s:
“In October 2008, the Company held an autumn sales series in Hong Kong and a sale of Contemporary Art in London… As a result of certain of the guaranteed property failing to sell or selling for less than the minimum guaranteed price, the Company incurred a principal loss of approximately $15 million (pre-tax).”
With the art market collapsing, and real-estate (Sotheby’s other business) doing poorly, it looks like their revenue picture is going to by shaken up, and quite violently.
What goes up, must always come down.
Via MarketMovers.
Great letter to the rest of the world
Yeah the US has been going down. It’s true, can’t deny that. We have had our financial foibles, our credit crises and real estate bubbles. Our stock market has been getting crushed and many of our leading firms no longer even exist. But you, the rest of the world, your stock markets have been getting even MORE crushed. Your banks are in even MORE precarious positions than ours. Your culture and economy and currency and utopian ideals are all showing cracks and are ready to break. You don’t know what to do and to be honest bro, you’re probably screwed.
And this is by design. Our forefathers claimed America by giving those Indian bros pox infested blankets. And we are claiming the rest of the world by doling out our toxic Mortgage-Backed Securities, our structured products, our overpriced assets and a little friend called contagion. FYI, pox be all in that sh**.
When the US wins, we win. When the US loses, we still win relative to the rest of the world, taking you down more than US. This is why we are the hegemon, bro.
Sincerely,
US
Stocks/The Market
I basically agree with these guys about the stock market. It’s got a bit further to fall, but we’re close to a bottom. I’ve just started buying stocks again, but slowly.
San Francisco weighs decriminalizing prostitution
Doing so would save the city $11M/year, and possibly increase tax revenue because prostitutes would have to file tax returns on their earnings.
Is it a good idea? It makes financial sense, at least.
Keynes, Friedman, Rihanna…
Entertainer and amateur economist/credit analyst Rihanna has been warning about the credit crisis in her ballads for more than a year. Why didn’t Ben Bernanke hear her cries?:
In March of 2007, just as the credit crunch was beginning and HSBC spread news of its bad sub-prime mortgages, Rihanna released a song stressing the act of supporting those close to you in need. With the words, “You can stand under my umbrella,” she forecasted a series of acquisitions, loans, and, ultimately, the bailout. Looking back, was that song meant for Jay-Z, or Hank-P?
The data points are numerous: the root of the crunch—Sell Me Candy, the alarm—SOS, and what lies ahead of us—Rehab. But Rihanna’s observations are most poignant in Disturbia where she describes, with startling accuracy, the current, troubled state of the financial ecosystem.
Modern-Day WPA
Wired wrote an interesting piece about creating a modern-day WPA to rebuild infrastructure. I think it’s clear that Americans are ready to go to work to fight for their country’s future. Young people already do this by joining the military, joining Teach For America, doing the Peace Corps, et cetera. Rebuilding public works using patriotic and low-priced volunteer labor would make a lot of sense.
Note to Next President: Modern-Day WPA Will Save the Economy - Dave Demerjian
Discounts in Detroit
I met these German kids in San Diego last month and asked them what they were doing in the States. They told me they were about to start a year-long study abroad in Flint, Michigan. Talk about a horrible choice! I let them in on a little secret: Flint is a sh*thole. Ditto Detroit. I told them how you can buy homes in Detroit for $300. Why so cheap? Because if you buy one and try to renovate it, your renovations will be immediately stolen by thieves or laid-off GM workers.
I just got ahold of some new data on the Detroit real estate market, courtesy Portfolio.com’s Felix Salmon:
The median price on a house or condo sold in Detroit last month plummeted 57%, to $9,250, from $21,250 a year ago, according to figures released Monday by Realcomp, a multiple listing service based in Farmington Hills. [...] “We are seeing that low end of the market sell quicker. If you have a $75,000 house in the city of Detroit, there are not a lot of buyers for it,” Elsea said. “But if you have an $8,500 house, it sells very quickly.”
No, that’s not a misprint.
Weathering the Storm
“Even in dark times such as these, when other men run around town trying to predict the erratic market, stressing about their 401Ks and saving for their kid’s college fund, a gentleman casually saddles up at his usual watering hole, where he weathers the financial shitstorm by putting cocktails on the cuff, making small talk with the barman and by challenging other patrons to epic matches of Big Buck Hunter.”
Via The Foggy Monocle.
A Better Solution
I wasn’t the first to say it (and I’m not taking any credit here), but my position on the bailout’s need for a remix (the government pumping buying equity stakes in banks) is being taken seriously, and at the highest levels.
My buddy Nick noted that Economist Nouriel Roubini is in agreement. Treasury is on board too–NYT reported a few days ago that:
Treasury officials say the just-passed $700 billion bailout bill gives them the authority to inject cash directly into banks that request it. Such a move would quickly strengthen banks’ balance sheets and, officials hope, persuade them to resume lending.
All the banks need to do is ASK FOR IT. Trust me, banks, you need it.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was quoted by Bloomberg as saying “we see the need — a clear, present need — to raise capital,” by purchasing bank stock.
Let’s get it started, Mr. Paulson. Each day we delay the bank equity-stake buy is a day confidence will be scant.
U.S. May Take Ownership Stake in Banks - NYT
Paulson Indicates Need to Purchase Bank Equity `Soon as We Can’ - Bloomberg
Pakistani Plunge
“Unless something happens quickly, we are about to see what happens when you have a systemic collapse in a nuclear power next door to a terrorist hotbed.”
Uh oh.
Pakistan’s debt has been downgraded by S&P deep into junk status; it has just enough foreign reserves to pay for two months of imports; and will likely default on a major loan on Friday–plus it has $3-billion more in upcoming debt payments. The “badla” rate, Pakistan’s prime interest rate for loaning money to individuals and businesses soared to 100% per annum, which will grind lending (and hence business) to a halt.
Pakistan, The Land That Financial Bad News Forgot: Part II - Paul Kedrovsky
Soros Speaks
My idol, George Soros, speaks about regulatory failure, our misguided bailout, and the inability of sloth-like bureaucrats to deal with an imminent crisis. Video link here. Here are some excerpts:
Markets have the ability to adjust and they’re very flexible. There is this invisible hand. But it is also prone to be mistaken. In other words, markets instead are reflecting reality. They always look at reality with a bias. There is always a prevailing bias. I’ll call it, you know, optimism/pessimism. And sometimes those moods actually can reinforce themselves so that there are these initially self-reinforcing but eventually unsustainable and self-defeating boom/bust sequences or bubbles. And this is what has happened now. This current economic disaster is self-generated. It was generated by the market itself, by getting too cocky, using leverage too much, too much credit. And it got excessive.
Unfortunately, the authorities are behind the curve. They are reacting to these crises as they emerge. One thing leads to another, one market after another gets into difficulty. And they react to it. And they don’t quite understand what’s hitting them. So they are not anticipating and not gaining control of the situation.
This housing bubble, when that burst, it was only the detonator that exploded the bigger bubble, the super bubble, which is this 25 years of constant credit expansion using greater and greater leverage. The amount of credit in the economy has been growing at, I don’t know, I don’t know the exact figure, but maybe at least twice as fast as the economy itself. I think it’s more like three. And now, suddenly, you have a contraction of credit. And it’s a sudden thing. And it’s a period of great wealth destruction. And that’s how these poor people in Texas suddenly find that their 401(k) is worthless.
This is the end of an era. And this is a fact.BILL MOYERS:End of an era? Capitalism as we have known it?
GEORGE SOROS:No. No, no, no. Capitalism will survive. But [it marks the end of] the period where America could run ever increasing current account deficits. We consumed six and a half percent more than we are producing. That had to come to an end. You see, for the last 25 years the world economy, the motor of the world economy that has been driving it was consumption by the American consumer who has been spending more than he’s been producing. So that motor is now switched off. It’s finished. It’s run out of — can’t continue. You need a new motor.
BILL MOYERS:Well, don’t be shy. What do you think the new government should do?
GEORGE SOROS:Well, first of all you have to prevent housing crisis from overshooting on the downside the way they overshot on the upside. You can’t arrest the decline, but you can definitely slow it down by minimizing the number of foreclosures and readjusting the mortgages to reflect the ability of people to pay. So you have to renegotiate mortgages rather than foreclose. Recapitalize the banks.
BILL MOYERS:One of the British newspapers this morning had a headline, “Welcome to Socialism.” It’s not going that way, is it?
GEORGE SOROS:Well, you know, it’s very interesting. Actually, these market fundamentalists are making the same mistake as Marx did. You see, socialism would have worked very well if the rulers had the interests of the people really at heart. But they were pursuing their self-interests. Now, in the housing market, the people who originated the [mortgage loans] earned the fee. And the people who then owned the mortgages–their interests were not looked after by the agents that were selling them the mortgages. So you have an agent principle problem in socialism, and you have the same agent/principle problem in this free market fundamentalism.
BILL MOYERS:The agent is concerned only with his own interests, not with the interest of the people who they’re supposed to represent.
GEORGE SOROS:That’s right.
GEORGE SOROS: Both Marxism and market fundamentalism are false ideologies.
BILL MOYERS:Is there an ideology that is not false?
GEORGE SOROS:Yes: the recognition that all our ideas, all our human constructs have a flaw in it. And perfection is not attainable. And we must engage in critical thinking and correct our mistakes.
That’s my ideology. As a child, I experienced Fascism, the Nazi occupation and then Communism, two false ideologies. And I learned that both of those ideologies are false. And now I was shocked when I found that even in a democracy people can be misled to the extent that we’ve been misled in the last few years.
Economizing in Troubled Times
(Referring to the current economic depression, and perhaps the downfall of General Motors):
Charlton S. (12:03): “So I just bought stakes in horse and buggy automotive manufacturers, cardboard-box housing suppliers, and Ebay. I figure it’s a ‘value investment’ in the current market.”
Cameron N. (15:10): “Yeah, I’m looking into buying candle makers as well as matchbook manufacturers. I figure more families will be eschewing extravagances such as electricity in favor of more economical ‘melting-wax-and-wick’ home lighting systems. An additional selling point is the small amount of heat created, which could subdue the cold in the chilly North-East.
Bailout Remix
Some people thought the bailout was too big. Others thought it was corporate welfare.
No matter what most people are thinking, they should know that the financial bailout Congress passed was an inappropriate, inadequate response, and it needs to be remixed, ASAP.
This whole problem started as a write-down of under-performing debt. When loans don’t perform as expected, banks write down the future value of those loans, which impacts its capital ratio. Its capital ratio is key, because it is this number that determines whether a bank can continue to lend, or if it is forced to sell off loans for cash to buttress its balance sheet.
A bank’s Tier 1 Capital acts as somewhat of a multiplier. Each additional dollar of Tier 1 Capital allows for the creation of roughly 10 dollars in loans. These loans make the economy run smooth, providing capital for projects. On the contrary, when Tier 1 Capital falls by $1, the bank needs to call-in $10 worth of loans or sell those loans off for cash to recapitalize.
Therefore, it would be a much better idea to use any government bailout money to recapitalize the banks. By increasing their Tier 1 capital, each dollar from a potential bailout would equal $10 going into the economy in the form of much-needed loans (liquidity). Essentially, with that form of bailout, you get much more bang for your buck.
Instead, Treasury pushed a government-sponsored buying spree of impaired assets that banks hold. It sounded like a great idea, but because the multiplier effect (of directly recapitalizing the banks) was not employed, this $700B will not do much good. Congress’ action was akin to tackling a storm raging in the sea with a teaspoon. “The global capital markets system has had a heart attack,” said Passport Capital’s John Burbank, “and the policymakers are prescribing exercise and vitamins.” Mr. Burbank thinks an amount as large as $5 trillion will be needed.
Cramer on Today
Jim Cramer went on the Today Show and, reluctantly, told viewers they ought to sell all their stock holdings.
Now, Jim Cramer has been famously wrong about a lot of things. He told investors that Bear Stearns (the first major casualty of this year’s credit turmoil) was perfectly solvent and that stockholders should stay put.
Should we interpret Jim Cramer’s sell-call as a sign that we should buy?
Perhaps not.
The prevailing wind in the market has been set. No matter the feeble efforts of the Treasury Department, investors are running for the exits.
Personally, I’ve been holding mostly money-market (cash) for months and months, only occasionally wading into equities when the right situation presents itself. So if you subscribe to the “do as I do, not as I say” mantra, you know where I stand on all of this market volatility and uncertainty.
Hedge funds as an asset class have not been performing well, and this has caused their partners (read: investors) to redeem their money. This has caused multiple hedge-fund liquidations, sending more sell tickets to the exchanges, and pushing prices even lower.
Clearly, the shakeout benefits us all in the end, because assets are getting so cheap that bargains are starting to become obvious. This situation will surely provide gains to stock investors with keen eyes. In the mean time, we’re looking at more gloom, as the domino-effect that is the debt-market tumult takes more victims.
Commercial real-estate finance, hedge funds, I’m looking at you.
Recession Takes Another Victim; A Nosejob Postponed
A nose job in a hospital with a private nurse in attendance had been something of a rite of passage for Joan Asher’s children. But when her fourth and last child was ready for her own rhinoplasty recently, Ms. Asher asked her to postpone it.
The financial markets were simply more out of whack than her 16-year-old’s proboscis.
“The other noses were more prominent,” the stay-at-home mother from a tony New York City suburb in Westchester County told her 16-year-old daughter. She could get hers done when things settled down.
This is what passes as a compliment if you’re a Westchester mom. (”Darling, your nose job qualifies as a luxury, whereas in the case of your siblings, it was more of a necessity.”) On another note, Joan, maybe if all four of your kids need nose jobs, the world is trying to tell you to stop having ugly children.
As Times Turn Tough, New York’s Wealthy Economize [WSJ]
Via Nicole Hancock.
Links for Tuesday
McCain has no legitimate chance of winning the presidential election. Check the poll average graph at RealClearPolitics. Obama’s been ahead in the poll average fully 90% of the campaign, with leads over McCain as high as 7.5 points. McCain, in comparison, has only managed a lead in the polls on 5 short occasions in the last year. Those meager leads quickly fade.
US elections: Barack Obama’s team believes he can win by a landslide - Telegraph
An artist has built a temple of worship for practitioners of reason and science; a stake in the heart of traditional ‘fairytale’ religions.
Bankruptcy Reorganization > Bailout? - CNN
Bailout marks Karl Marx’s comeback - Financial Post
Sweet New Splitter Phone Shown Off By NTT DoCoMo at CEATEC:
KDDI au, not to be outdone, is showing off some sick mobile phones too:
Lookbook.nu: Like Wardrobe Remix on steroids
Today’s Market Decline
Today’s market decline was the 9th worst in history, in terms of percent loss of the benchmark index (the S&P 500).
However, the market isn’t yet as distressed as you would think. Less than two weeks ago, on September 17th, the S&P 500 was within 0.5% of where the index stands today. It was at the same level in October 2004. So really, this decline is not the end of the world. It’s erased stock market gains made since 2004. Is that so bad?
The S&P is down some 29 percent from its peak reached roughly a year ago. The Shanghai Compositite Index is down more than 62 percent! We should consider ourselves lucky. Imagine how much personal wealth would be lost had our markets fallen as much as China’s! I guess it’s still conceivable that US markets have further to fall, but as of right now, it’s (comparitively) not so bad.
The Bailout
Ron Paul speaks out about our proposed bailout billed to the taxpayers; it’s a zero-sum game. Inaction > action.
Planning vs. Freedom, Black vs. White
An old university buddy of mine sent me a cryptic note yesterday that only an economist would understand:
“Keynes vs. Hayek 2008?”
He was referring to the pending government bailout of financial institutions, which economist Friedrich von Hayek would surely denounce as socialist and anti-freedom. John Maynard Keynes, on the other hand, would surely favor the bailout. He reasoned that the economic instability brought on by a prolonged recession could birth another Hitler or Stalin via social upheaval. Such an outcome would be infinitely more damaging than a government bailout worth a measly 1/20th of our annual GDP.
Keynes’ philosophy of planning and action to circumvent financial crises was definitely in favor among politicians in the 20th century. Friedrich von Hayek’s laissez-faire economics had its tradition carried on by conservative economists such as Milton Friedman, and they became became popular among libertarian-conservatives throughout the world in the late 20th century and remain popular today.
Commentators have compared this battle of ideas — action versus inaction — to an ideological war in which we will see one victor. The truth is, neither idea is correct. The world is not always so black and white, right or wrong. The ideal solution lies somewhere between the two extremes, and not exclusively in one or the other.
Every once in a while, the market does require government action to circumvent recession. However, these actions need to be measured so as to only support the market system, and not overly interfere with the market’s function (in this instance, the market’s essential function is to punish banks and investors for taking undue risk, and punish homeowners for buying more home than they could afford). This process must play out in order to revive stability in the long term. If we don’t change the system, we’ll be struck again and again by the same problems further in the future.
The current government bailout under consideration is too large, and places too much emphasis on health of the banks. Some of these banks SHOULD fail!
The Treasury is listening to Keynes, and pretending Hayek doesn’t exist. Why don’t you listen to both dead economists, Mr. Paulson?
Lesson 1: Don’t Listen To Business Magazines
Much noise has been made about divining the future through magazine covers. The conventional wisdom is that you should do exactly what the magazine covers tell you not to do, and you will profit.
Consider the Time Magazine cover from 2005: “Why we are gaga over real estate”.
This bullish piece on real estate should be correctly interpreted as: Sell your house immediately!
The following is a fantastic Gawker article detailing the business magazines’ best efforts in telling investors to buy stock earlier this year in companies like Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, and AIG:
How Magazines Led Investors Toward Ruin - Gawker
Just another piece of evidence for why we should all consult professional financial advisers instead of taking stock picks out of magazines.
Hubris and the Financial Meltdown
Great article at NYT on irrational hubris of both American homeowners and Wall Street banks:
Whole Foods
Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) has been having a tough year. Consumers have been hit by the economic downturn and high gas prices, and are scaling back their spending on top-shelf goods, such as those at Whole Foods. In addition to the broader consumer ills, Whole Foods bought out its chief competitor (acquisitions rarely turn out well, in case you didn’t know), Wild Oats, and integrating their new purchase has been costly and full of unforeseen speedbumps. Then, Whole Foods got hit by the E. coli bug recently, when they found out that one of their beef suppliers had switched up its processing plant without giving notice, which ended in Whole Foods’ beef being contaminated with E. coli, and a costly and embarrassing recall.
What does all of this bad news mean? Potentially, it means a buying opportunity: Whole Foods stock is down fully 75% from its peak in early 2006. The Motley Fool, a stock research service for retail investors that I happen to subscribe to, has noticed the stock’s precipitous fall as well, and is advising its subscribers to think about buying shares now.
Is Whole Foods a bargain?
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