Dow Above 13,000 – Sign of a vibrant economy?

For the first time since May 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed above 13,000, an important psychological and technical level.

What does this event say about the economy, if anything?

Simpletons might be inclined to identify the breaking of 13,000 as a sign that the US economy and the world’s economy are returning to vibrancy. Such an explanation is overly simplistic, ignoring the complexity and the myriad variables that lead markets to behave the way they do.

US stocks are being driven higher for two reasons:

1) Fear of exposure to European sovereign debt

and

2) Fear of exposure to European banks

Both of these drivers have led investors to seek safety in US Treasuries, which has driven down Treasury yields, causing many treasury investors to seek potentially higher returns in stocks due to the low returns offered by Treasuries. As a result, I believe it’s safe to say that the recent breaking of 13,000 is not caused by bullish sentiment on stocks, but rather is simply a consequence of insanely low-yielding debt, which has made stocks look like a bargain in comparison.

Investors are faced with heightened global uncertainty due to fears of low growth in the Eurozone and the United States, slowing growth in China, high energy prices, and the threat of inflation. The obvious play in this environment would be to buy gold, TIPS, and Treasuries and wait out the storm until it’s safe to wade back into the equity markets. However, there is little opportunity to make gains using said strategy because our relatively efficient markets have priced gold at stratospherically-high levels and have done the same to TIPS and Treasuries, some of which are currently sporting negative yields (including the 5, 7, and 10-year TIPS).

So what might an intelligent investor do to best position their portfolio with regard to risk and return?

1) Buy leveraged real estate funds, REITs, apartment home operators, and senior living operators

With the cost of financing going through the floor, healthy demand for apartments and rental housing, and low prices for single-family homes due to the poor health of the US housing market, real estate is cheap. Cheap asset prices and dirt cheap financing? Sign me up.

2) Buy energy services firms

Energy prices are high and will likely remain high, barring a global recession. Oil production in the Bakken shale and other areas in the heartland of North America is increasing quickly due to recent advances in horizontal drilling and fracking. Increased production will drive higher revenue and margins for energy services firms.

3) Go bargain hunting in Europe

European equities are cheap, and by spending some time prospecting through them, you might just discover some hidden gems.

On Planning and Controlling Human Birth

Catholic Bishops would like women to be unable to plan or time the birth of their own children, but it appears Catholic Bishops haven’t really given the subject much thought. Had they done so, I believe they might have a different opinion about the effects of birth control on a society. Here’s what Ludwig von Mises had to say on the subject:

Those fighting birth control want to eliminate a device indispensable for the preservation of peaceful human cooperation and the social division of labor. Where the average standard of living is impaired by the excessive increase in population figures. irreconcilable conflicts of interests arise. Each individual is again a rival of all other individuals in the struggle for survival. The annihilation of rivals is the only means of increasing one’s own well-being. The philosophers and theologians who assert that birthcontrol is contrary to the laws of God and Nature refuse to see things as they really are. Nature straitens the material means required for the improvement of human well-being and survival. As natural conditions are, man has only the choice between the pitiless war of each against each or social cooperation. But social cooperation is impossible if people give rein to the natural impulse of proliferation. In restricting procreation man adjusts himself to the natural conditions of his existence. The rationalization of the sexual passions is an indispensable condition of civilization and societal bonds. Its abandonment would in the long run not increase but decrease the numbers of those surviving, and would render life for everyone as poor and miserable as it was many thousands of years ago for our ancestors.

-Ludwig von Mises, Human Action, pg. 673.

So much for humans breeding like wild animals, we humans have moved past that. Or have we?

Via Reason.

Le 21ème – New York’s Best Street Fashion Site

Do you read The Sartorialist or occasionally take peeks at lookbook? Meet the new Sheriff in town: a photoblog called Le 21ème Arrondissement.

It all started in Seattle in 2008, when photographer and fashionphile Adam Sinding began taking photos of the fashionable denizens of his adopted hometown and posted them on his now-famed photoblog. Years later, in 2011, Sinding moved to New York City, enabling him to capture and curate an elite fashion scene that was on an entirely different level than that of the very provincial Seattle.

Adam’s work has been featured by Elle Magazine, mega-influential blog Refinery 29, Mary Claire, ELLE Japan, and New York Magazine. Just last week, The W New York Times Square hotel and Elle Magazine hosted an event to kick-off fashion week called Scene On The Street, a photo exhibit curated by Elle Fashion Editor Sydney Wasserman which featured street fashion photos from Le 21ème Arrondissement.

Here is a taste of what you’ll find on Le 21ème, as well as some photos from the event:

The Scene On The Street photo exhibit is viewable at the W New York Times Square’s Living Room until February 29th.

Visit Le21ème

Follow Le21ème on Twitter

Subscribe to Le21ème via RSS

Capital Cities ft. Tupac Shakur – Breathe (Pink Floyd cover)

Amazing.

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Viceroy – Going Back To Cali (Jet Life Remix)

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Loving the steel drums.