Archive for October, 2008
Me: lol yeah patrick, my old analyst, would do a skype video call to his buddy, and put his laptop on the table at the coffee shop
by the bathroom
and his friend’s face would be fullscreened
Mr. Smith: lol…
Me: and his friend on the screen would holla at girls going to/coming out of the bathroom
Mr. Smith: omg
Me: ask for their numbers, etc.
Mr. Smith: dude
that is brilliance
but slightly creepy
Mr. Smith: it sucks for u though if the market overall takes a dump tho, cause all your stocks get dropped [stopped out, sold automatically at a loss]
Me: but lucky me, my longs only fall 8%
and my shorts make money
Mr. Smith: yeah
so, you decrease some of the upside to trading based on value, BUT, you stay away from ever getting taken to the cleaners
good risk management, when built-in, has an UNBELIEVABLE value-add
seriously, it’s un-****ing-believable
without risk management, I’d be some po-dunk run-of-the-mill PM with average returns
Mr. Smith: hahaha
that makes sense
Me: running a portfolio without sound risk management is like going to a gunfight armed with a paperclip.
Receptionist: Matt Mattman is on the phone for you
Suit: Tell him I’m busy…
Receptionist: says he has an order for you… still busy?
Suit: I’m in the middle of last night’s episode of 30Rock.
Receptionist: 30Rock huh? He’s on line 1.
Suit: Ok… I’ll get him
Receptionist: So you show up late, you’re still drunk from last night, and now you’re watching internet TV on the job!?
Receptionist: You’re the type employee that CEOs dream of having on staff.
Nouriel Roubini predicted, almost down to the detail, our current financial catastrophe:
While the economic sun was shining, most other economists scoffed at Roubini and his predictions of imminent disaster. They dismissed his warnings that the sub-prime mortgage disaster would trigger a financial meltdown. They could not quite believe his view that the US mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would collapse, and that the investment banks would be crushed as the world headed for a long recession.
Yet all these predictions and more came true. Few are laughing now.
In essence, he is really just copy-catting George Soros.
George Soros was one of the first to bring the concept of reflexivity to the realm of economics and finance. He posited that if one predicts a possible outcome, and then acts so as to make that outcome more likely, their action can cause a snowballing mass of self-reinforcing movement which forces the predicted outcome to occur.
If you predict something, make enough noise about it, and act to make it more possible, then you will have created a self-fulfilling prophecy.
George Soros was the master of executing this in practice.
Soros would find a situation that was abnormal (a propped-up exchange rate between the British pound and the German mark), position himself to profit (selling short billions of dollars worth of the British pound) which in itself changed the market-determined exchange rate, increasing the likelihood that his predicted outcome (the British pound immediately devalued, Bank of England ends futile propping-up of exchange rate) might actually occur (it did, and Soros made $1 billion in a single day when the pound was devalued).
Soros, however, took a break from being an active market practitioner, and spent more time lecturing and writing (good) books.
Messr. Roubini has taken the torch — he’s the new gold standard in creating, and profiting from, reflexive market gyrations.
Awesome! — liberal rag MSNBC should be treated just like FOXNEWS.
“Elect us, hold us accountable, and make a judgment and then go from there. But I do tell you that if the Democrats win and have substantial majorities, Congress of the United States will be more bipartisan,” said Pelosi.
Yeah, right. More bipartisan under complete Democratic Party control.
Howard Dean weighs in on one party domination: surprise, surprise! He favors a Dem lock! Fool.
Looks like Google has clipped Feedburner’s wings after acquiring it, and ad-revenue for member bloggers is down 75-90%. Potential opportunity for old-school competitor to resurrect Feedburner’s business model and do it right? I think so…
This isn’t a surprise. In fact, over dinner last night, my great aunt and great uncle mentioned that they believe Obama would be assassinated if elected. They also repeated the false accusation that he’s a “communist” because they heard the false charge on the radio from Dan Savage. Fail.
3.5″ screen, mobile TV, 5.2MP camera, and a dictionary.
480 x 800 pixel 3.1-inch OLED display, 8.1MP camera, flip/swivel, 30fps VGA video recording. Hot.
A president’s pension currently is $191,300 per year, until he is 80 years old.
Assuming the next president lives to age 80:
Sen. McCain would receive ZERO pension as he would reach 80 at the end of two terms as president.
Sen. Obama would be retired for 26 years after two terms and would receive $4,973,800 in pension.
Therefore it would certainly make economic sense to elect McCain in November.
How’s that for non-partisan thinking?
(Since I disparaged Microsoft in a note earlier, this helps to balance it out)
Microsoft has embraced OpenID. If you didn’t know, you can log into cameronnewland.com with an OpenID identity as well.
Last week, Merrill Lynch advisors got the details on their “retention packages” offered to them by their new overlords. Apparently, they’re “insulted” by the terms:
A financial advisor producing $700,000 in revenues is being offered $175,000 in cash over seven years and a 25% growth bonus over three years. Recruiter Darin Manis says that same producer could get a lot more defecting to a competitor—”around $850,000 in cash on about a 9 year deal plus another $700,000 or so back end bonuses (after one to two years).”
“Everybody’s hiring,” Manis claims. Manis says it would be very easy for a Merrill advisor with a “decent book” to get a new job, and he expects to see many of them do just that before the current retention offer expires November 14th.
Manis says there’s another reason some Merrill Lynch advisors may leave sooner rather than later. Merrill Lynch was one of the founding firms which established the Protocol for Broker Recruiting in 2004. That allows financial advisors to move from one firm to another, taking clients with them without being sued, as long as they abide by certain rules. Manis says Bank of America has not been a party to that Protocol, and once the acquisition of Mother Merrill is final, financial advisors who leave may risk prosecution if they solicit clients to go with them.
Environmentalists should be seriously concerned by the recent precipitous fall in oil prices (from $140+ down to $62 a barrel).
Now, that wind energy farm, that solar installation, and that heat-recovery device don’t make anywhere near the kind of competition-relevant financial sense that they did 6 months ago.
This recession is disastrous for Al Gore’s green-tech revolution.
This isn’t exactly a big surprise, but it looks like — once again — Microsoft is copying an innovative business model from an upstart rival and attempting to push them out of the industry:
As expected, Microsoft announced a Windows-based “cloud OS” during the first day of PDC. Windows Azure offers virtualized computing, automated service management, and scalable storage and will compete against cloud-based offerings from Amazon and Google.
Google built cloud applications like GMail to rip email away from its traditional home on the desktop. Amazon built massive cloud servers to host applications on the cheap, without having to lease your own datacenter.
Microsoft watches from above, clairvoyant, and swoops in with their own copy just in time to sell the solution to all its existing clients (at least, the ones that haven’t already jumped ship to Amazon’s service).
Pitiful. It’d be smarter to resell the Amazon service as a Microsoft-branded solution. Then you save the hassle of development costs, and increase the availability and power (using the network effect) of the solution.
If only Microsoft thought of collaborating with competitors…they’d sure save themselves a whole bunch of headache.
This is short propaganda video that fails just about all objective tests as to validity of its arguments:
For instance, the video’s editor says that Obama favors legislated reparations for black Americans, when in fact Obama only shot down the possibility of judicial-led reparations, and doesn’t favor reparations at all.
It’s some pretty funny propaganda. I’ve seen a lot of this type of stuff this election cycle, and I think there’s a lot more to come. I think these viral YouTube videos are going to be more and more influential to voters in the years to come.
…in an analysis of the state of the race on Fox News, Karl Rove, the architect of President George W. Bush’s election victories, said Mr Obama now had his biggest lead of the campaign, and was ahead in states with 317 electoral votes, compared with 157 votes for Mr McCain and 270 needed to win the presidency.
According to Mr Rove, Mr. Obama was set to capture Ohio, Indiana, Colorado and Virginia. “In order for McCain to win, he’s got a very steep hill to climb,” he said indicating it would be extremely difficult for the Republican to turn round a national deficit of more than six points.
Commenting on reports of tensions between Mr McCain’s advisers and Sarah Palin, Mr Rove added: “This is… not the kind of thing you like to have happening in your campaign. And it’s generally a sign that people are throwing in the towel and thinking that they’re going to lose.”
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